Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Aldrees Petroleum and Transport Services Company (4200.SR)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Specialty RetailSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$687.23 - $809.67$758.78
Multi-Stage$166.17 - $182.06$173.97
Blended Fair Value$466.37
Current Price$125.30
Upside272.20%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS8.45%2.26%0.751.501.130.600.900.500.500.400.800.80
YoY Growth---50.00%33.33%87.50%-33.33%80.00%0.00%25.00%-50.00%0.00%33.33%
Dividend Yield--0.54%1.21%1.58%1.03%2.11%1.49%3.02%2.96%5.79%5.45%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)407.12
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)150.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)257.12
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)81.4250.8930.53
Cash Retained (M)257.12257.12257.12
(-) Cash Required (M)-81.42-50.89-30.53
(=) Excess Retained (M)175.70206.23226.59
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)100.00100.00100.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.762.062.27
LTM Dividend per Share1.501.501.50
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.762.062.27
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.263.563.77
WACC / Discount Rate5.54%5.54%5.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$687.23$758.78$809.67
Upside / Downside448.46%505.57%546.18%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)407.12433.59461.77491.79523.75557.80574.53
Payout Ratio36.84%47.48%58.11%68.74%79.37%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)150.00205.85268.32338.04415.70502.02531.44

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.54%5.54%5.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)193.20195.03196.87
Year 2 PV (M)236.37240.87245.42
Year 3 PV (M)279.50287.53295.70
Year 4 PV (M)322.60335.01347.77
Year 5 PV (M)365.66383.32401.66
PV of Terminal Value (M)15,219.8415,954.9616,718.22
Equity Value (M)16,617.1717,396.7218,205.63
Shares Outstanding (M)100.00100.00100.00
Fair Value$166.17$173.97$182.06
Upside / Downside32.62%38.84%45.30%

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