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Definitive Analysis

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Ibiden Co.,Ltd. (4062.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Hardware, Equipment & PartsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3,302.15 - $5,640.73$4,315.82
Multi-Stage$4,726.64 - $5,191.64$4,954.70
Blended Fair Value$4,635.26
Current Price$6,347.00
Upside-26.97%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS2.71%3.05%39.2339.2349.0439.2334.3334.3334.3333.3832.6633.88
YoY Growth--0.00%-20.00%25.00%14.28%0.00%0.00%2.86%2.21%-3.62%16.66%
Dividend Yield--0.62%0.60%0.61%1.03%0.57%1.09%1.79%1.88%1.69%2.95%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)37,615.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)5,595.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)32,020.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)7,523.004,701.882,821.13
Cash Retained (M)32,020.0032,020.0032,020.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-7,523.00-4,701.88-2,821.13
(=) Excess Retained (M)24,497.0027,318.1329,198.88
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)142.61142.61142.61
(=) Excess Retained per Share171.78191.56204.75
LTM Dividend per Share39.2339.2339.23
(+) Excess Retained per Share171.78191.56204.75
(=) Adjusted Dividend211.01230.80243.98
WACC / Discount Rate7.51%7.51%7.51%
Growth Rate1.05%2.05%3.05%
Fair Value$3,302.15$4,315.82$5,640.73
Upside / Downside-47.97%-32.00%-11.13%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)37,615.0038,387.0939,175.0339,979.1440,799.7541,637.2142,886.33
Payout Ratio14.87%29.90%44.92%59.95%74.97%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)5,595.0011,477.5517,599.2423,967.3930,589.5737,473.4939,669.86

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.51%7.51%7.51%
Growth Rate1.05%2.05%3.05%
Year 1 PV (M)10,571.1810,675.7910,780.40
Year 2 PV (M)14,929.4115,226.3515,526.21
Year 3 PV (M)18,725.9519,287.4019,859.96
Year 4 PV (M)22,012.5722,896.9223,807.66
Year 5 PV (M)24,836.8226,090.2927,393.87
PV of Terminal Value (M)582,977.00612,398.80642,996.67
Equity Value (M)674,052.94706,575.55740,364.77
Shares Outstanding (M)142.61142.61142.61
Fair Value$4,726.64$4,954.70$5,191.64
Upside / Downside-25.53%-21.94%-18.20%

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