Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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The United Laboratories International Holdings Limited (3933.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$268.08 - $653.56$612.48
Multi-Stage$94.41 - $103.39$98.82
Blended Fair Value$355.65
Current Price$13.70
Upside2,496.00%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS59.56%0.00%0.560.320.150.120.070.050.050.000.000.00
YoY Growth--75.00%113.27%23.45%72.35%30.25%16.51%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--4.82%4.92%3.47%3.42%1.52%1.07%1.27%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)5,970.87
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,380.94
(=) Cash Retained (M)4,589.93
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,194.17746.36447.82
Cash Retained (M)4,589.934,589.934,589.93
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,194.17-746.36-447.82
(=) Excess Retained (M)3,395.763,843.574,142.12
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,816.901,816.901,816.90
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.872.122.28
LTM Dividend per Share0.760.760.76
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.872.122.28
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.632.883.04
WACC / Discount Rate6.53%6.53%6.53%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$268.08$612.48$653.56
Upside / Downside1,856.76%4,370.69%4,670.53%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)5,970.876,358.986,772.317,212.517,681.338,180.618,426.03
Payout Ratio23.13%36.50%49.88%63.25%76.63%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,380.942,321.183,377.814,562.005,885.867,362.557,794.08

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.53%6.53%6.53%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)2,158.342,178.802,199.26
Year 2 PV (M)2,920.512,976.143,032.29
Year 3 PV (M)3,667.683,772.963,880.25
Year 4 PV (M)4,400.054,569.274,743.31
Year 5 PV (M)5,117.865,365.055,621.71
PV of Terminal Value (M)153,277.59160,680.95168,367.66
Equity Value (M)171,542.03179,543.18187,844.48
Shares Outstanding (M)1,816.901,816.901,816.90
Fair Value$94.41$98.82$103.39
Upside / Downside589.16%621.30%654.65%

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