Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Arcland Service Holdings Co., Ltd. (3085.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: RestaurantsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1,699.30 - $3,672.48$2,428.53
Multi-Stage$1,208.47 - $1,321.32$1,263.87
Blended Fair Value$1,846.20
Current Price$2,919.00
Upside-36.75%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2022202120202019201820172016201520142013
DPS16.09%23.29%29.2326.3023.3921.4317.5413.8712.157.299.034.32
YoY Growth--11.18%12.43%9.14%22.16%26.49%14.11%66.81%-19.32%108.96%20.00%
Dividend Yield--1.30%1.20%1.07%1.48%0.86%0.57%0.79%0.46%0.72%0.55%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,892.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)94.12
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,797.88
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)578.40361.50216.90
Cash Retained (M)2,797.882,797.882,797.88
(-) Cash Required (M)-578.40-361.50-216.90
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,219.482,436.382,580.98
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)32.6732.6732.67
(=) Excess Retained per Share67.9474.5879.01
LTM Dividend per Share2.882.882.88
(+) Excess Retained per Share67.9474.5879.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend70.8277.4681.89
WACC / Discount Rate9.90%9.90%9.90%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$1,699.30$2,428.53$3,672.48
Upside / Downside-41.78%-16.80%25.81%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,892.003,079.983,280.183,493.393,720.463,962.294,081.16
Payout Ratio3.25%20.60%37.95%55.30%72.65%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)94.12634.591,244.921,931.912,702.953,566.063,775.07

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.90%9.90%9.90%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)572.02577.44582.86
Year 2 PV (M)1,011.521,030.781,050.23
Year 3 PV (M)1,414.941,455.551,496.94
Year 4 PV (M)1,784.451,853.081,923.66
Year 5 PV (M)2,122.132,224.632,331.06
PV of Terminal Value (M)32,571.9934,145.2335,778.69
Equity Value (M)39,477.0541,286.7243,163.43
Shares Outstanding (M)32.6732.6732.67
Fair Value$1,208.47$1,263.87$1,321.32
Upside / Downside-58.60%-56.70%-54.73%

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