Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

Southern Province Cement Company (3050.SR)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Construction MaterialsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$6.49 - $8.81$7.68
Multi-Stage$21.33 - $23.62$22.45
Blended Fair Value$15.06
Current Price$28.72
Upside-47.55%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-9.52%-13.70%1.370.862.013.734.522.261.513.295.975.40
YoY Growth--59.07%-57.09%-46.22%-17.52%100.23%49.32%-54.08%-44.85%10.59%-9.59%
Dividend Yield--4.04%2.19%4.01%5.29%5.14%4.14%3.29%6.87%9.52%7.40%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)193.72
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)103.17
(=) Cash Retained (M)90.55
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)38.7424.2214.53
Cash Retained (M)90.5590.5590.55
(-) Cash Required (M)-38.74-24.22-14.53
(=) Excess Retained (M)51.8166.3476.02
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)140.00140.00140.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.370.470.54
LTM Dividend per Share0.740.740.74
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.370.470.54
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.111.211.28
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate-9.17%-8.17%-7.17%
Fair Value$6.49$7.68$8.81
Upside / Downside-77.39%-73.27%-69.32%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)193.72177.90163.37150.03137.77126.52130.32
Payout Ratio53.26%60.61%67.95%75.30%82.65%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)103.17107.82111.02112.97113.87113.87120.54

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate-9.17%-8.17%-7.17%
Year 1 PV (M)100.31101.41102.52
Year 2 PV (M)96.0998.22100.37
Year 3 PV (M)90.9794.0197.12
Year 4 PV (M)85.3189.1393.08
Year 5 PV (M)79.3783.8388.50
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,533.502,676.062,824.97
Equity Value (M)2,985.553,142.673,306.55
Shares Outstanding (M)140.00140.00140.00
Fair Value$21.33$22.45$23.62
Upside / Downside-25.75%-21.84%-17.76%

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