Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Shanghai Karon Eco-Valve Manufacturing Co., Ltd. (301151.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$10.69 - $29.29$16.51
Multi-Stage$39.98 - $44.16$42.03
Blended Fair Value$29.27
Current Price$20.48
Upside42.92%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS18.15%0.00%0.630.240.430.062.950.270.090.210.000.00
YoY Growth--163.63%-43.87%655.67%-98.09%979.20%214.74%-58.20%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--4.16%1.46%2.39%0.20%10.44%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)80.92
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)51.97
(=) Cash Retained (M)28.95
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)16.1810.116.07
Cash Retained (M)28.9528.9528.95
(-) Cash Required (M)-16.18-10.11-6.07
(=) Excess Retained (M)12.7718.8322.88
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)168.93168.93168.93
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.080.110.14
LTM Dividend per Share0.310.310.31
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.080.110.14
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.380.420.44
WACC / Discount Rate1.51%1.51%1.51%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$10.69$16.51$29.29
Upside / Downside-47.80%-19.36%43.04%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)80.9280.1179.3178.5277.7376.9579.26
Payout Ratio64.22%69.38%74.53%79.69%84.84%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)51.9755.5859.1162.5765.9569.2673.32

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate1.51%1.51%1.51%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)54.2054.7555.30
Year 2 PV (M)56.2157.3658.53
Year 3 PV (M)58.0259.8161.64
Year 4 PV (M)59.6362.1164.65
Year 5 PV (M)61.0764.2567.56
PV of Terminal Value (M)6,464.866,801.507,152.03
Equity Value (M)6,754.007,099.797,459.72
Shares Outstanding (M)168.93168.93168.93
Fair Value$39.98$42.03$44.16
Upside / Downside95.22%105.21%115.61%

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