Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Guangzhou Jinzhong Auto Parts Manufacturing Co., Ltd. (301133.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$9.49 - $24.06$14.31
Multi-Stage$6.62 - $7.23$6.92
Blended Fair Value$10.61
Current Price$29.69
Upside-64.25%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS17.30%0.00%0.210.150.110.000.140.090.000.240.000.00
YoY Growth--37.17%36.79%2,500.28%-96.96%49.91%0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.87%0.63%0.44%0.02%0.24%0.16%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)45.33
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)13.12
(=) Cash Retained (M)32.21
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)9.075.673.40
Cash Retained (M)32.2132.2132.21
(-) Cash Required (M)-9.07-5.67-3.40
(=) Excess Retained (M)23.1526.5528.81
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)107.91107.91107.91
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.210.250.27
LTM Dividend per Share0.120.120.12
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.210.250.27
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.340.370.39
WACC / Discount Rate9.24%9.24%9.24%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$9.49$14.31$24.06
Upside / Downside-68.04%-51.81%-18.96%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)45.3348.2851.4154.7658.3162.1063.97
Payout Ratio28.93%41.15%53.36%65.57%77.79%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)13.1219.8627.4335.9045.3655.8959.17

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.24%9.24%9.24%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)18.0118.1818.36
Year 2 PV (M)22.5622.9923.42
Year 3 PV (M)26.7827.5528.33
Year 4 PV (M)30.6831.8633.07
Year 5 PV (M)34.2835.9437.66
PV of Terminal Value (M)581.95610.06639.24
Equity Value (M)714.26746.57780.08
Shares Outstanding (M)107.91107.91107.91
Fair Value$6.62$6.92$7.23
Upside / Downside-77.71%-76.70%-75.65%

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