Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Zhejiang Chunhui Intelligent Control Co., Ltd. (300943.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$4.68 - $9.48$6.53
Multi-Stage$3.75 - $4.08$3.91
Blended Fair Value$5.22
Current Price$16.18
Upside-67.73%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS16.75%52.83%0.120.150.070.070.000.050.270.000.000.01
YoY Growth---19.73%104.55%10.00%319,317.02%-99.96%-80.02%0.00%-100.00%-76.88%643.85%
Dividend Yield--0.83%1.24%0.51%0.38%0.00%0.23%1.13%0.00%0.01%0.05%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)55.04
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)27.20
(=) Cash Retained (M)27.84
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)11.016.884.13
Cash Retained (M)27.8427.8427.84
(-) Cash Required (M)-11.01-6.88-4.13
(=) Excess Retained (M)16.8320.9623.71
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)207.47207.47207.47
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.080.100.11
LTM Dividend per Share0.130.130.13
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.080.100.11
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.210.230.25
WACC / Discount Rate9.99%9.99%9.99%
Growth Rate5.22%6.22%7.22%
Fair Value$4.68$6.53$9.48
Upside / Downside-71.10%-59.63%-41.39%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)55.0458.4662.0965.9670.0674.4176.64
Payout Ratio49.41%57.53%65.65%73.77%81.88%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)27.2033.6340.7648.6557.3666.9770.90

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.99%9.99%9.99%
Growth Rate5.22%6.22%7.22%
Year 1 PV (M)30.2930.5830.87
Year 2 PV (M)33.0633.6934.33
Year 3 PV (M)35.5436.5637.60
Year 4 PV (M)37.7439.1940.69
Year 5 PV (M)39.6841.6043.59
PV of Terminal Value (M)600.74629.83660.04
Equity Value (M)777.04811.46847.13
Shares Outstanding (M)207.47207.47207.47
Fair Value$3.75$3.91$4.08
Upside / Downside-76.85%-75.83%-74.76%

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