Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Shenzhen AV-Display Co., Ltd. (300939.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Hardware, Equipment & PartsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$108.06 - $127.43$119.37
Multi-Stage$74.07 - $81.62$77.77
Blended Fair Value$98.57
Current Price$34.39
Upside186.63%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS5.73%0.00%0.390.400.400.330.000.300.070.100.020.00
YoY Growth---0.92%0.00%20.00%7,579.39%-98.55%339.72%-32.74%546.61%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.32%1.24%1.18%1.09%0.01%0.72%0.16%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)81.23
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)47.69
(=) Cash Retained (M)33.54
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)16.2510.156.09
Cash Retained (M)33.5433.5433.54
(-) Cash Required (M)-16.25-10.15-6.09
(=) Excess Retained (M)17.2923.3927.45
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)121.01121.01121.01
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.140.190.23
LTM Dividend per Share0.390.390.39
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.140.190.23
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.540.590.62
WACC / Discount Rate-1.54%-1.54%-1.54%
Growth Rate0.62%1.62%2.62%
Fair Value$108.06$119.37$127.43
Upside / Downside214.23%247.10%270.55%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)81.2382.5483.8885.2586.6388.0390.68
Payout Ratio58.71%64.97%71.23%77.48%83.74%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)47.6953.6359.7566.0572.5479.2383.88

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate-1.54%-1.54%-1.54%
Growth Rate0.62%1.62%2.62%
Year 1 PV (M)53.9354.4655.00
Year 2 PV (M)60.4261.6362.85
Year 3 PV (M)67.1769.1971.26
Year 4 PV (M)74.1977.1880.27
Year 5 PV (M)81.4885.6189.91
PV of Terminal Value (M)8,626.039,063.279,518.06
Equity Value (M)8,963.239,411.359,877.34
Shares Outstanding (M)121.01121.01121.01
Fair Value$74.07$77.77$81.62
Upside / Downside115.38%126.15%137.34%

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