Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Anshan Hifichem Co., Ltd. (300758.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Chemicals - SpecialtySector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$5.84 - $22.75$9.90
Multi-Stage$3.70 - $4.05$3.87
Blended Fair Value$6.89
Current Price$13.65
Upside-49.55%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS2.46%12.11%0.140.090.270.360.230.120.020.140.230.04
YoY Growth--52.82%-66.89%-23.74%57.71%85.52%521.92%-86.15%-37.02%499.28%-14.48%
Dividend Yield--1.07%1.05%2.25%3.00%1.70%1.39%0.13%1.37%2.17%0.36%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)78.09
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)28.48
(=) Cash Retained (M)49.61
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)15.629.765.86
Cash Retained (M)49.6149.6149.61
(-) Cash Required (M)-15.62-9.76-5.86
(=) Excess Retained (M)33.9939.8543.75
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)393.57393.57393.57
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.090.100.11
LTM Dividend per Share0.070.070.07
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.090.100.11
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.160.170.18
WACC / Discount Rate8.37%8.37%8.37%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$5.84$9.90$22.75
Upside / Downside-57.21%-27.46%66.65%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)78.0983.1788.5794.33100.46106.99110.20
Payout Ratio36.47%47.18%57.88%68.59%79.29%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)28.4839.2451.2764.7079.6696.29101.94

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.37%8.37%8.37%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)35.8736.2136.55
Year 2 PV (M)42.8443.6644.48
Year 3 PV (M)49.4250.8452.29
Year 4 PV (M)55.6257.7659.96
Year 5 PV (M)61.4664.4367.51
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,212.241,270.791,331.58
Equity Value (M)1,457.451,523.681,592.37
Shares Outstanding (M)393.57393.57393.57
Fair Value$3.70$3.87$4.05
Upside / Downside-72.87%-71.64%-70.36%

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