Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

SYoung Group Co., Ltd. (300740.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Specialty RetailSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$17.30 - $77.51$40.29
Multi-Stage$8.86 - $9.69$9.27
Blended Fair Value$24.78
Current Price$21.85
Upside13.40%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS65.56%62.48%0.180.100.080.040.030.010.160.010.010.00
YoY Growth--82.25%24.54%101.80%50.05%80.99%-91.09%2,189.37%-26.25%478.55%18.48%
Dividend Yield--1.56%0.50%0.57%0.29%0.11%0.20%1.33%0.03%0.08%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)151.48
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)31.36
(=) Cash Retained (M)120.11
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)30.3018.9311.36
Cash Retained (M)120.11120.11120.11
(-) Cash Required (M)-30.30-18.93-11.36
(=) Excess Retained (M)89.82101.18108.75
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)388.64388.64388.64
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.230.260.28
LTM Dividend per Share0.080.080.08
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.230.260.28
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.310.340.36
WACC / Discount Rate7.40%7.40%7.40%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$17.30$40.29$77.51
Upside / Downside-20.83%84.38%254.76%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)151.48161.32171.81182.98194.87207.54213.76
Payout Ratio20.71%34.56%48.42%62.28%76.14%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)31.3655.7683.20113.96148.38186.78197.73

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.40%7.40%7.40%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)51.4351.9252.40
Year 2 PV (M)70.7872.1273.48
Year 3 PV (M)89.4291.9994.60
Year 4 PV (M)107.38111.51115.76
Year 5 PV (M)124.68130.70136.96
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,998.673,143.503,293.88
Equity Value (M)3,442.363,601.753,767.09
Shares Outstanding (M)388.64388.64388.64
Fair Value$8.86$9.27$9.69
Upside / Downside-59.46%-57.58%-55.64%

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