Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Sunshine Global Circuits Co.,Ltd. (300739.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Hardware, Equipment & PartsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.53 - $4.63$3.40
Multi-Stage$2.49 - $2.71$2.60
Blended Fair Value$3.00
Current Price$16.29
Upside-81.58%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-0.97%53.03%0.220.360.280.300.220.230.130.100.060.18
YoY Growth---39.06%27.24%-5.09%36.10%-4.90%76.09%29.46%75.32%-67.29%5,554.79%
Dividend Yield--1.64%2.67%1.81%2.10%1.49%1.35%0.79%0.54%0.40%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)51.87
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)49.94
(=) Cash Retained (M)1.92
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)10.376.483.89
Cash Retained (M)1.921.921.92
(-) Cash Required (M)-10.37-6.48-3.89
(=) Excess Retained (M)-8.45-4.56-1.97
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)303.42303.42303.42
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.03-0.02-0.01
LTM Dividend per Share0.160.160.16
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.03-0.02-0.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.140.150.16
WACC / Discount Rate9.91%9.91%9.91%
Growth Rate4.28%5.28%6.28%
Fair Value$2.53$3.40$4.63
Upside / Downside-84.45%-79.12%-71.58%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)51.8754.6057.4960.5263.7267.0869.09
Payout Ratio96.29%95.03%93.78%92.52%91.26%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)49.9451.8953.9155.9958.1560.3763.91

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.91%9.91%9.91%
Growth Rate4.28%5.28%6.28%
Year 1 PV (M)46.7747.2247.66
Year 2 PV (M)43.7844.6345.48
Year 3 PV (M)40.9842.1743.39
Year 4 PV (M)38.3639.8541.38
Year 5 PV (M)35.8937.6439.47
PV of Terminal Value (M)549.99576.87604.80
Equity Value (M)755.77788.38822.18
Shares Outstanding (M)303.42303.42303.42
Fair Value$2.49$2.60$2.71
Upside / Downside-84.71%-84.05%-83.37%

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