Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Zhejiang Tianyu Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. (300702.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$11.95 - $29.09$17.78
Multi-Stage$10.43 - $11.42$10.91
Blended Fair Value$14.35
Current Price$25.80
Upside-44.38%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS20.76%6.11%0.200.150.100.280.260.080.050.090.130.07
YoY Growth--37.32%46.90%-64.00%6.10%233.28%51.86%-39.39%-34.90%81.99%-35.38%
Dividend Yield--1.05%0.91%0.43%0.60%0.48%0.17%0.27%0.57%1.10%0.61%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)191.75
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)48.78
(=) Cash Retained (M)142.98
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)38.3523.9714.38
Cash Retained (M)142.98142.98142.98
(-) Cash Required (M)-38.35-23.97-14.38
(=) Excess Retained (M)104.63119.01128.60
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)344.64344.64344.64
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.300.350.37
LTM Dividend per Share0.140.140.14
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.300.350.37
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.450.490.51
WACC / Discount Rate7.99%7.99%7.99%
Growth Rate4.11%5.11%6.11%
Fair Value$11.95$17.78$29.09
Upside / Downside-53.67%-31.07%12.75%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)191.75201.55211.85222.68234.06246.02253.40
Payout Ratio25.44%38.35%51.26%64.17%77.09%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)48.7877.29108.60142.90180.43221.42234.40

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.99%7.99%7.99%
Growth Rate4.11%5.11%6.11%
Year 1 PV (M)70.9071.5872.26
Year 2 PV (M)91.3693.1394.91
Year 3 PV (M)110.27113.48116.75
Year 4 PV (M)127.70132.68137.80
Year 5 PV (M)143.74150.78158.09
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,050.683,200.043,355.18
Equity Value (M)3,594.663,761.683,934.99
Shares Outstanding (M)344.64344.64344.64
Fair Value$10.43$10.91$11.42
Upside / Downside-59.57%-57.69%-55.74%

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