Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Advanced Fiber Resources (Zhuhai), Ltd. (300620.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Communication EquipmentSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$9.58 - $20.58$13.66
Multi-Stage$7.05 - $7.69$7.37
Blended Fair Value$10.51
Current Price$118.80
Upside-91.15%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS11.26%0.54%0.120.130.130.090.070.070.070.000.000.00
YoY Growth---6.14%-0.01%51.21%20.12%0.01%2.64%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%
Dividend Yield--0.26%0.26%0.42%0.37%0.47%0.47%0.33%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)126.48
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)34.58
(=) Cash Retained (M)91.90
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)25.3015.819.49
Cash Retained (M)91.9091.9091.90
(-) Cash Required (M)-25.30-15.81-9.49
(=) Excess Retained (M)66.6176.0982.42
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)251.61251.61251.61
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.260.300.33
LTM Dividend per Share0.140.140.14
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.260.300.33
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.400.440.46
WACC / Discount Rate9.93%9.93%9.93%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$9.58$13.66$20.58
Upside / Downside-91.94%-88.50%-82.68%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)126.48134.70143.46152.79162.72173.29178.49
Payout Ratio27.34%39.87%52.40%64.94%77.47%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)34.5853.7175.1899.21126.05155.96165.10

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.93%9.93%9.93%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)48.4048.8649.32
Year 2 PV (M)61.0562.2163.39
Year 3 PV (M)72.6074.6876.81
Year 4 PV (M)83.1286.3289.61
Year 5 PV (M)92.6897.15101.80
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,415.821,484.211,555.21
Equity Value (M)1,773.671,853.431,936.12
Shares Outstanding (M)251.61251.61251.61
Fair Value$7.05$7.37$7.69
Upside / Downside-94.07%-93.80%-93.52%

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