Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Shenzhen FRD Science & Technology Co., Ltd. (300602.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Hardware, Equipment & PartsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$13.07 - $29.90$19.06
Multi-Stage$9.24 - $10.09$9.66
Blended Fair Value$14.36
Current Price$32.35
Upside-55.62%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS24.08%30.39%0.100.090.010.090.080.040.020.020.010.01
YoY Growth--17.09%909.58%-90.52%8.66%141.37%100.57%-2.80%49.32%10.18%50.57%
Dividend Yield--0.50%0.51%0.05%0.62%0.52%0.12%0.09%0.13%0.09%0.24%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)371.32
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)46.73
(=) Cash Retained (M)324.59
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)74.2646.4127.85
Cash Retained (M)324.59324.59324.59
(-) Cash Required (M)-74.26-46.41-27.85
(=) Excess Retained (M)250.33278.18296.74
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)581.13581.13581.13
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.430.480.51
LTM Dividend per Share0.080.080.08
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.430.480.51
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.510.560.59
WACC / Discount Rate9.62%9.62%9.62%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$13.07$19.06$29.90
Upside / Downside-59.58%-41.09%-7.56%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)371.32395.45421.16448.53477.69508.74524.00
Payout Ratio12.58%28.07%43.55%59.03%74.52%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)46.73110.99183.42264.79355.96457.86484.70

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.62%9.62%9.62%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)100.30101.25102.20
Year 2 PV (M)149.77152.62155.50
Year 3 PV (M)195.38200.99206.70
Year 4 PV (M)237.34246.47255.86
Year 5 PV (M)275.87289.20303.03
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,408.454,621.374,842.45
Equity Value (M)5,367.115,611.915,865.75
Shares Outstanding (M)581.13581.13581.13
Fair Value$9.24$9.66$10.09
Upside / Downside-71.45%-70.15%-68.80%

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