DDM Analysis: 300512.SZ

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$1.52 - $3.11	$2.13
Multi-Stage	$1.22 - $1.33	$1.27
Blended Fair Value	$1.70
Current Price	$7.91
Upside	-78.53%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	8.44%	15.40%	0.13	0.05	0.01	0.06	0.05	0.09	0.67	0.30	0.00	0.24
YoY Growth	-	-	169.83%	233.72%	-77.48%	20.13%	-38.46%	-87.00%	122.22%	0.00%	-100.00%	665.52%
Dividend Yield	-	-	1.67%	0.71%	0.18%	0.73%	0.72%	1.20%	6.07%	2.57%	0.00%	2.37%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	34.27
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	8.70
(=) Cash Retained (M)	25.57

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	6.85	4.28	2.57
Cash Retained (M)	25.57	25.57	25.57
(-) Cash Required (M)	-6.85	-4.28	-2.57
(=) Excess Retained (M)	18.71	21.28	23.00
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	403.49	403.49	403.49
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.05	0.05	0.06
LTM Dividend per Share	0.02	0.02	0.02
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.05	0.05	0.06
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.07	0.07	0.08
WACC / Discount Rate	9.63%	9.63%	9.63%
Growth Rate	4.93%	5.93%	6.93%
Fair Value	$1.52	$2.13	$3.11
Upside / Downside	-80.83%	-73.12%	-60.71%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	34.27	36.30	38.45	40.73	43.15	45.70	47.07
Payout Ratio	25.40%	38.32%	51.24%	64.16%	77.08%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	8.70	13.91	19.70	26.13	33.26	41.13	43.54

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	9.63%	9.63%	9.63%
Growth Rate	4.93%	5.93%	6.93%
Year 1 PV (M)	12.57	12.69	12.81
Year 2 PV (M)	16.09	16.39	16.71
Year 3 PV (M)	19.28	19.83	20.40
Year 4 PV (M)	22.17	23.02	23.91
Year 5 PV (M)	24.77	25.98	27.23
PV of Terminal Value (M)	395.60	414.81	434.77
Equity Value (M)	490.47	512.73	535.81
Shares Outstanding (M)	403.49	403.49	403.49
Fair Value	$1.22	$1.27	$1.33
Upside / Downside	-84.63%	-83.94%	-83.21%

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Hangzhou Zhongya Machinery Co., Ltd. (300512.SZ)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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