Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Jiangsu Olive Sensors High-Tech Co., Ltd. (300507.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$24.63 - $29.02$27.19
Multi-Stage$20.46 - $22.45$21.43
Blended Fair Value$24.31
Current Price$9.38
Upside159.20%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS24.10%24.82%0.070.130.050.040.030.030.030.030.000.01
YoY Growth---44.63%186.99%8.42%44.63%18.15%-4.05%2.01%0.00%-100.00%-4.42%
Dividend Yield--0.95%2.32%0.69%0.78%0.65%0.71%0.61%0.47%0.00%0.22%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)113.79
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)69.29
(=) Cash Retained (M)44.51
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)22.7614.228.53
Cash Retained (M)44.5144.5144.51
(-) Cash Required (M)-22.76-14.22-8.53
(=) Excess Retained (M)21.7530.2835.97
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)779.97779.97779.97
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.030.040.05
LTM Dividend per Share0.090.090.09
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.030.040.05
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.120.130.13
WACC / Discount Rate-1.65%-1.65%-1.65%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$24.63$27.19$29.02
Upside / Downside162.55%189.89%209.33%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)113.79121.19129.07137.46146.39155.91160.59
Payout Ratio60.89%66.71%72.53%78.36%84.18%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)69.2980.8593.62107.71123.23140.32148.54

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate-1.65%-1.65%-1.65%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)81.4382.2082.98
Year 2 PV (M)94.9796.7898.61
Year 3 PV (M)110.06113.21116.43
Year 4 PV (M)126.83131.70136.72
Year 5 PV (M)145.46152.48159.78
PV of Terminal Value (M)15,398.0616,141.7916,913.99
Equity Value (M)15,956.8116,718.1817,508.51
Shares Outstanding (M)779.97779.97779.97
Fair Value$20.46$21.43$22.45
Upside / Downside118.11%128.51%139.32%

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