Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Sinoseal Holding Co., Ltd. (300470.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$157.48 - $385.70$361.45
Multi-Stage$56.50 - $61.82$59.11
Blended Fair Value$210.28
Current Price$36.36
Upside478.34%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS37.79%29.76%0.880.880.450.160.150.180.150.130.060.09
YoY Growth---0.60%97.05%183.14%6.58%-15.96%15.94%16.02%128.47%-33.93%34.22%
Dividend Yield--2.36%2.64%1.04%0.43%0.32%0.70%0.54%0.57%0.26%0.49%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)399.79
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)183.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)216.79
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)79.9649.9729.98
Cash Retained (M)216.79216.79216.79
(-) Cash Required (M)-79.96-49.97-29.98
(=) Excess Retained (M)136.83166.81186.80
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)206.14206.14206.14
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.660.810.91
LTM Dividend per Share0.890.890.89
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.660.810.91
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.551.701.79
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$157.48$361.45$385.70
Upside / Downside333.12%894.10%960.77%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)399.79425.78453.45482.93514.32547.75564.18
Payout Ratio45.78%54.62%63.47%72.31%81.16%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)183.00232.56287.78349.20417.39492.97521.87

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)216.24218.28220.33
Year 2 PV (M)248.80253.54258.32
Year 3 PV (M)280.71288.77296.98
Year 4 PV (M)311.97323.97336.31
Year 5 PV (M)342.60359.15376.33
PV of Terminal Value (M)10,246.9510,741.8811,255.76
Equity Value (M)11,647.2712,185.5912,744.03
Shares Outstanding (M)206.14206.14206.14
Fair Value$56.50$59.11$61.82
Upside / Downside55.39%62.58%70.03%

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