Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Shandong Sinocera Functional Material Co., Ltd. (300285.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Chemicals - SpecialtySector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$12.55 - $28.39$18.22
Multi-Stage$9.11 - $9.94$9.52
Blended Fair Value$13.87
Current Price$22.32
Upside-37.86%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS5.52%20.13%0.120.120.120.110.070.090.070.030.040.02
YoY Growth--1.79%-2.80%10.41%61.22%-25.72%39.10%117.02%-17.47%107.65%-7.54%
Dividend Yield--0.64%0.66%0.43%0.32%0.16%0.44%0.41%0.22%0.28%0.17%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)612.03
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)187.46
(=) Cash Retained (M)424.57
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)122.4176.5045.90
Cash Retained (M)424.57424.57424.57
(-) Cash Required (M)-122.41-76.50-45.90
(=) Excess Retained (M)302.16348.06378.66
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)985.89985.89985.89
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.310.350.38
LTM Dividend per Share0.190.190.19
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.310.350.38
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.500.540.57
WACC / Discount Rate9.67%9.67%9.67%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$12.55$18.22$28.39
Upside / Downside-43.77%-18.36%27.18%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)612.03651.81694.18739.30787.36838.53863.69
Payout Ratio30.63%42.50%54.38%66.25%78.13%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)187.46277.05377.48489.80615.13754.68798.91

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.67%9.67%9.67%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)250.23252.61254.98
Year 2 PV (M)307.96313.82319.74
Year 3 PV (M)360.92371.28381.84
Year 4 PV (M)409.40425.15441.34
Year 5 PV (M)453.68475.59498.34
PV of Terminal Value (M)7,195.377,542.917,903.75
Equity Value (M)8,977.569,381.369,800.00
Shares Outstanding (M)985.89985.89985.89
Fair Value$9.11$9.52$9.94
Upside / Downside-59.20%-57.37%-55.46%

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