Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

Sungrow Power Supply Co., Ltd. (300274.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Electrical Equipment & PartsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$184.79 - $532.13$289.58
Multi-Stage$122.49 - $133.92$128.10
Blended Fair Value$208.84
Current Price$161.98
Upside28.93%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS53.16%45.71%0.840.290.170.150.100.100.090.060.050.02
YoY Growth--188.35%71.42%10.15%60.65%-3.62%6.02%60.75%24.50%180.11%-13.91%
Dividend Yield--1.21%0.37%0.23%0.20%0.19%1.47%1.09%0.43%0.65%0.19%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)15,317.95
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,414.12
(=) Cash Retained (M)12,903.83
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)3,063.591,914.741,148.85
Cash Retained (M)12,903.8312,903.8312,903.83
(-) Cash Required (M)-3,063.59-1,914.74-1,148.85
(=) Excess Retained (M)9,840.2410,989.0811,754.98
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,066.862,066.862,066.86
(=) Excess Retained per Share4.765.325.69
LTM Dividend per Share1.171.171.17
(+) Excess Retained per Share4.765.325.69
(=) Adjusted Dividend5.936.486.86
WACC / Discount Rate8.88%8.88%8.88%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$184.79$289.58$532.13
Upside / Downside14.08%78.78%228.52%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)15,317.9516,313.6217,374.0018,503.3119,706.0320,986.9221,616.53
Payout Ratio15.76%30.61%45.46%60.30%75.15%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,414.124,993.287,897.5411,158.2414,809.4818,888.2319,995.29

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.88%8.88%8.88%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)4,542.784,585.844,628.90
Year 2 PV (M)6,536.756,661.266,786.94
Year 3 PV (M)8,402.368,643.568,889.34
Year 4 PV (M)10,145.6610,535.8310,937.16
Year 5 PV (M)11,772.4512,341.0712,931.44
PV of Terminal Value (M)211,769.63221,998.19232,618.21
Equity Value (M)253,169.64264,765.74276,791.98
Shares Outstanding (M)2,066.862,066.862,066.86
Fair Value$122.49$128.10$133.92
Upside / Downside-24.38%-20.92%-17.32%

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