Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Baotou Dongbao Bio-Tech Co.,Ltd (300239.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.87 - $9.04$4.61
Multi-Stage$1.88 - $2.05$1.96
Blended Fair Value$3.29
Current Price$5.41
Upside-39.24%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.11%0.00%0.030.020.010.010.020.030.020.020.010.01
YoY Growth--2.43%333.33%-37.85%-63.46%-0.24%13.70%20.00%66.67%74.97%-75.00%
Dividend Yield--0.48%0.47%0.09%0.14%0.44%0.51%0.44%0.33%0.14%0.08%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)68.16
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)15.42
(=) Cash Retained (M)52.74
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)13.638.525.11
Cash Retained (M)52.7452.7452.74
(-) Cash Required (M)-13.63-8.52-5.11
(=) Excess Retained (M)39.1144.2247.63
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)627.41627.41627.41
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.060.070.08
LTM Dividend per Share0.020.020.02
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.060.070.08
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.090.100.10
WACC / Discount Rate8.69%8.69%8.69%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$2.87$4.61$9.04
Upside / Downside-46.95%-14.73%67.16%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)68.1672.5977.3182.3387.6893.3896.18
Payout Ratio22.62%36.10%49.57%63.05%76.52%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)15.4226.2038.3251.9167.1084.0488.97

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.69%8.69%8.69%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)23.8824.1124.33
Year 2 PV (M)31.8332.4433.05
Year 3 PV (M)39.3040.4241.57
Year 4 PV (M)46.2948.0749.90
Year 5 PV (M)52.8455.4058.05
PV of Terminal Value (M)982.351,029.801,079.06
Equity Value (M)1,176.501,230.241,285.97
Shares Outstanding (M)627.41627.41627.41
Fair Value$1.88$1.96$2.05
Upside / Downside-65.34%-63.76%-62.11%

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