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Definitive Analysis

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Shenzhen Jasic Technology Co.,Ltd. (300193.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Manufacturing - Tools & AccessoriesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$48.91 - $98.61$92.41
Multi-Stage$15.62 - $17.07$16.33
Blended Fair Value$54.37
Current Price$9.04
Upside501.47%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS23.62%20.58%0.610.110.530.480.500.210.050.030.030.02
YoY Growth--472.79%-79.88%8.98%-3.43%138.05%293.08%66.46%0.16%37.37%-75.00%
Dividend Yield--5.37%1.34%6.65%5.27%6.73%2.91%0.62%0.42%0.34%0.24%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)235.54
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)192.47
(=) Cash Retained (M)43.07
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)47.1129.4417.67
Cash Retained (M)43.0743.0743.07
(-) Cash Required (M)-47.11-29.44-17.67
(=) Excess Retained (M)-4.0413.6325.40
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)475.01475.01475.01
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.010.030.05
LTM Dividend per Share0.410.410.41
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.010.030.05
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.400.430.46
WACC / Discount Rate6.36%6.36%6.36%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$48.91$92.41$98.61
Upside / Downside441.04%922.28%990.85%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)235.54250.85267.15284.52303.01322.70332.39
Payout Ratio81.71%83.37%85.03%86.69%88.34%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)192.47209.13227.16246.63267.69290.43307.46

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.36%6.36%6.36%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)194.79196.64198.48
Year 2 PV (M)197.06200.82204.61
Year 3 PV (M)199.29205.01210.84
Year 4 PV (M)201.46209.21217.18
Year 5 PV (M)203.59213.42223.63
PV of Terminal Value (M)6,422.716,732.937,055.02
Equity Value (M)7,418.917,758.038,109.77
Shares Outstanding (M)475.01475.01475.01
Fair Value$15.62$16.33$17.07
Upside / Downside72.77%80.67%88.86%

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