Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Fujian Yuanli Active Carbon Co.,Ltd. (300174.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Chemicals - SpecialtySector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$14.44 - $34.22$21.30
Multi-Stage$10.14 - $11.08$10.60
Blended Fair Value$15.95
Current Price$16.65
Upside-4.20%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS10.11%6.43%0.120.070.090.090.050.070.100.110.090.07
YoY Growth--63.84%-14.80%0.23%77.62%-34.86%-23.77%-13.21%19.63%30.74%11.31%
Dividend Yield--0.77%0.46%0.51%0.64%0.30%0.47%0.52%0.37%0.30%0.60%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)245.01
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)42.43
(=) Cash Retained (M)202.59
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)49.0030.6318.38
Cash Retained (M)202.59202.59202.59
(-) Cash Required (M)-49.00-30.63-18.38
(=) Excess Retained (M)153.58171.96184.21
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)360.08360.08360.08
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.430.480.51
LTM Dividend per Share0.120.120.12
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.430.480.51
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.540.600.63
WACC / Discount Rate9.48%9.48%9.48%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$14.44$21.30$34.22
Upside / Downside-13.28%27.91%105.51%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)245.01260.94277.90295.96315.20335.69345.76
Payout Ratio17.32%31.85%46.39%60.93%75.46%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)42.4383.11128.91180.32237.86302.12319.83

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.48%9.48%9.48%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)75.2175.9276.63
Year 2 PV (M)105.55107.56109.59
Year 3 PV (M)133.59137.43141.33
Year 4 PV (M)159.45165.59171.89
Year 5 PV (M)183.26192.11201.30
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,995.103,139.763,289.96
Equity Value (M)3,652.163,818.373,990.72
Shares Outstanding (M)360.08360.08360.08
Fair Value$10.14$10.60$11.08
Upside / Downside-39.08%-36.31%-33.44%

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