Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

Nanfang Pump Industry Co., Ltd. Class A (300145.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.42 - $2.28$1.81
Multi-Stage$1.59 - $1.74$1.67
Blended Fair Value$1.74
Current Price$4.62
Upside-62.41%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-6.93%11.73%0.050.060.070.080.100.070.100.070.040.02
YoY Growth---21.35%-9.11%-14.39%-18.16%39.46%-32.78%42.18%59.44%165.21%7.37%
Dividend Yield--1.23%1.93%2.52%2.81%3.12%2.05%2.35%0.96%0.46%0.25%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)250.54
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)46.97
(=) Cash Retained (M)203.57
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)50.1131.3218.79
Cash Retained (M)203.57203.57203.57
(-) Cash Required (M)-50.11-31.32-18.79
(=) Excess Retained (M)153.46172.25184.78
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,918.351,918.351,918.35
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.080.090.10
LTM Dividend per Share0.020.020.02
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.080.090.10
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.100.110.12
WACC / Discount Rate9.83%9.83%9.83%
Growth Rate2.30%3.30%4.30%
Fair Value$1.42$1.81$2.28
Upside / Downside-69.28%-60.87%-50.69%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)250.54258.82267.37276.20285.33294.75303.60
Payout Ratio18.75%33.00%47.25%61.50%75.75%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)46.9785.41126.33169.86216.13265.28280.83

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.83%9.83%9.83%
Growth Rate2.30%3.30%4.30%
Year 1 PV (M)77.0177.7678.51
Year 2 PV (M)102.70104.72106.76
Year 3 PV (M)124.51128.20131.96
Year 4 PV (M)142.85148.51154.35
Year 5 PV (M)158.08165.96174.15
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,448.482,570.512,697.35
Equity Value (M)3,053.623,195.653,343.07
Shares Outstanding (M)1,918.351,918.351,918.35
Fair Value$1.59$1.67$1.74
Upside / Downside-65.55%-63.94%-62.28%

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