Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Anhui Anke Biotechnology (Group) Co., Ltd. (300009.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: BiotechnologySector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$13.68 - $77.60$25.01
Multi-Stage$8.39 - $9.16$8.77
Blended Fair Value$16.89
Current Price$10.08
Upside67.56%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS20.76%24.16%0.250.250.200.170.100.100.070.050.040.03
YoY Growth--1.10%25.47%19.77%71.83%-1.63%45.46%34.39%26.45%49.77%-8.42%
Dividend Yield--2.98%2.51%1.81%1.70%0.77%1.12%0.64%0.39%0.57%0.33%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)668.71
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)418.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)250.71
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)133.7483.5950.15
Cash Retained (M)250.71250.71250.71
(-) Cash Required (M)-133.74-83.59-50.15
(=) Excess Retained (M)116.97167.12200.56
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,634.761,634.761,634.76
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.070.100.12
LTM Dividend per Share0.260.260.26
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.070.100.12
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.330.360.38
WACC / Discount Rate8.02%8.02%8.02%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$13.68$25.01$77.60
Upside / Downside35.69%148.11%669.85%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)668.71712.18758.47807.77860.28916.19943.68
Payout Ratio62.51%68.01%73.50%79.00%84.50%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)418.00484.33557.51638.16726.95824.57872.90

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.02%8.02%8.02%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)444.14448.35452.56
Year 2 PV (M)468.83477.76486.78
Year 3 PV (M)492.13506.26520.65
Year 4 PV (M)514.08533.85554.18
Year 5 PV (M)534.74560.56587.38
PV of Terminal Value (M)11,267.0811,811.2912,376.32
Equity Value (M)13,721.0014,338.0714,977.87
Shares Outstanding (M)1,634.761,634.761,634.76
Fair Value$8.39$8.77$9.16
Upside / Downside-16.73%-12.99%-9.11%

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