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Definitive Analysis

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A.D.Works Group Co.,Ltd. (2982.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Real Estate - ServicesSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3,575.39 - $9,451.64$8,857.57
Multi-Stage$1,320.06 - $1,446.01$1,381.87
Blended Fair Value$5,119.72
Current Price$293.00
Upside1,647.35%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS30.80%0.00%9.148.053.362.193.832.3913.441.601.591.59
YoY Growth--13.49%139.26%53.77%-42.81%60.32%-82.24%737.97%0.57%0.46%0.00%
Dividend Yield--3.68%3.11%2.03%1.46%2.32%1.30%7.30%0.87%0.87%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,302.32
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)268.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,034.32
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)460.46287.79172.67
Cash Retained (M)2,034.322,034.322,034.32
(-) Cash Required (M)-460.46-287.79-172.67
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,573.861,746.531,861.65
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)48.4448.4448.44
(=) Excess Retained per Share32.4936.0538.43
LTM Dividend per Share5.535.535.53
(+) Excess Retained per Share32.4936.0538.43
(=) Adjusted Dividend38.0241.5843.96
WACC / Discount Rate6.62%6.62%6.62%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$3,575.39$8,857.57$9,451.64
Upside / Downside1,120.27%2,923.06%3,125.82%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,302.322,451.972,611.352,781.092,961.863,154.383,249.01
Payout Ratio11.64%27.31%42.98%58.66%74.33%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)268.00669.691,122.471,631.282,201.492,838.943,005.34

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.62%6.62%6.62%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)622.20628.10634.00
Year 2 PV (M)968.92987.381,006.00
Year 3 PV (M)1,308.271,345.831,384.10
Year 4 PV (M)1,640.381,703.461,768.35
Year 5 PV (M)1,965.352,060.272,158.83
PV of Terminal Value (M)57,443.6260,218.1763,098.90
Equity Value (M)63,948.7466,943.2070,050.18
Shares Outstanding (M)48.4448.4448.44
Fair Value$1,320.06$1,381.87$1,446.01
Upside / Downside350.53%371.63%393.52%

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