Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Fujicco Co., Ltd. (2908.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$301.71 - $441.57$369.14
Multi-Stage$522.45 - $574.26$547.85
Blended Fair Value$458.50
Current Price$1,594.00
Upside-71.24%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS2.87%2.54%46.1246.0546.7245.3543.2840.0538.9637.9435.8335.79
YoY Growth--0.15%-1.43%3.02%4.79%8.07%2.80%2.69%5.88%0.10%-0.29%
Dividend Yield--2.89%2.49%2.48%2.27%2.27%2.00%1.89%1.34%1.39%1.21%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,130.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)328.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)802.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)226.00141.2584.75
Cash Retained (M)802.00802.00802.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-226.00-141.25-84.75
(=) Excess Retained (M)576.00660.75717.25
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)28.4728.4728.47
(=) Excess Retained per Share20.2323.2125.20
LTM Dividend per Share11.5211.5211.52
(+) Excess Retained per Share20.2323.2125.20
(=) Adjusted Dividend31.7634.7336.72
WACC / Discount Rate8.35%8.35%8.35%
Growth Rate-1.97%-0.97%0.03%
Fair Value$301.71$369.14$441.57
Upside / Downside-81.07%-76.84%-72.30%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,130.001,119.061,108.221,097.491,086.861,076.331,108.62
Payout Ratio29.03%41.22%53.42%65.61%77.81%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)328.00461.29591.97720.07845.63968.701,025.48

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.35%8.35%8.35%
Growth Rate-1.97%-0.97%0.03%
Year 1 PV (M)421.44425.74430.04
Year 2 PV (M)494.12504.25514.48
Year 3 PV (M)549.13566.10583.43
Year 4 PV (M)589.18613.59638.75
Year 5 PV (M)616.62648.72682.14
PV of Terminal Value (M)12,202.6612,837.8713,499.27
Equity Value (M)14,873.1515,596.2816,348.11
Shares Outstanding (M)28.4728.4728.47
Fair Value$522.45$547.85$574.26
Upside / Downside-67.22%-65.63%-63.97%

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