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Definitive Analysis

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SinoPac Financial Holdings Company Limited (2890.TW)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$103.63 - $374.70$328.48
Multi-Stage$47.96 - $52.44$50.16
Blended Fair Value$189.32
Current Price$25.00
Upside657.27%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS5.30%12.94%0.720.560.700.610.610.560.430.280.340.37
YoY Growth--27.50%-19.26%14.29%0.00%10.06%29.74%50.44%-16.39%-7.24%72.22%
Dividend Yield--3.34%2.69%4.55%3.65%5.23%5.53%4.01%3.07%4.17%4.49%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)24,321.71
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)11,544.12
(=) Cash Retained (M)12,777.58
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)4,864.343,040.211,824.13
Cash Retained (M)12,777.5812,777.5812,777.58
(-) Cash Required (M)-4,864.34-3,040.21-1,824.13
(=) Excess Retained (M)7,913.249,737.3710,953.45
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)12,908.9412,908.9412,908.94
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.610.750.85
LTM Dividend per Share0.890.890.89
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.610.750.85
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.511.651.74
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$103.63$328.48$374.70
Upside / Downside314.51%1,213.91%1,398.80%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)24,321.7125,902.6227,586.2929,379.4031,289.0633,322.8534,322.53
Payout Ratio47.46%55.97%64.48%72.99%81.49%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)11,544.1214,498.0617,787.2421,442.7625,498.3529,990.5631,748.34

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)13,418.0413,545.2213,672.41
Year 2 PV (M)15,235.8515,526.0515,818.99
Year 3 PV (M)16,998.7817,486.7617,983.98
Year 4 PV (M)18,708.0319,427.4920,167.50
Year 5 PV (M)20,364.7821,348.4122,369.68
PV of Terminal Value (M)534,349.59560,158.87586,955.94
Equity Value (M)619,075.07647,492.80676,968.50
Shares Outstanding (M)12,908.9412,908.9412,908.94
Fair Value$47.96$50.16$52.44
Upside / Downside91.83%100.63%109.77%

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