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Definitive Analysis

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Lotte Wellfood Co.,Ltd (280360.KS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Food ConfectionersSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1,142,010.98 - $1,402,007.64$1,313,886.48
Multi-Stage$242,284.51 - $265,231.26$253,546.79
Blended Fair Value$783,716.63
Current Price$115,500.00
Upside578.54%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS23.31%0.00%3,081.312,377.761,247.381,242.361,093.551,080.86133.170.001,812.070.00
YoY Growth--29.59%90.62%0.40%13.61%1.17%711.63%0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.65%1.93%1.14%1.06%0.82%1.02%0.07%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)62,321.05
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)29,775.37
(=) Cash Retained (M)32,545.68
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)12,464.217,790.134,674.08
Cash Retained (M)32,545.6832,545.6832,545.68
(-) Cash Required (M)-12,464.21-7,790.13-4,674.08
(=) Excess Retained (M)20,081.4724,755.5527,871.60
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)8.848.848.84
(=) Excess Retained per Share2,271.602,800.323,152.81
LTM Dividend per Share3,368.163,368.163,368.16
(+) Excess Retained per Share2,271.602,800.323,152.81
(=) Adjusted Dividend5,639.756,168.486,520.97
WACC / Discount Rate6.02%6.02%6.02%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$1,142,010.98$1,313,886.48$1,402,007.64
Upside / Downside888.75%1,037.56%1,113.86%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)62,321.0566,371.9170,686.0975,280.6880,173.9385,385.2387,946.79
Payout Ratio47.78%56.22%64.67%73.11%81.56%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)29,775.3737,315.5645,710.1755,038.4365,386.2376,846.7181,350.78

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.02%6.02%6.02%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)34,865.9035,196.3835,526.87
Year 2 PV (M)39,905.6840,665.7741,433.03
Year 3 PV (M)44,895.0946,183.8647,497.07
Year 4 PV (M)49,834.4951,750.9953,722.23
Year 5 PV (M)54,724.2757,367.4760,111.83
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,917,630.252,010,252.502,106,419.63
Equity Value (M)2,141,855.672,241,416.982,344,710.67
Shares Outstanding (M)8.848.848.84
Fair Value$242,284.51$253,546.79$265,231.26
Upside / Downside109.77%119.52%129.64%

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