Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Seria Co., Ltd. (2782.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Discount StoresSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2,979.74 - $5,073.78$3,889.20
Multi-Stage$2,914.36 - $3,190.33$3,049.79
Blended Fair Value$3,469.50
Current Price$3,105.00
Upside11.74%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS4.77%21.39%73.0473.0473.0473.6263.1157.8552.5821.0315.7713.13
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%-0.79%16.66%9.09%10.02%150.07%33.33%20.06%24.93%
Dividend Yield--2.72%2.53%3.18%3.05%1.54%1.51%2.08%0.40%0.29%0.31%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)16,870.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,316.50
(=) Cash Retained (M)15,553.50
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)3,374.002,108.751,265.25
Cash Retained (M)15,553.5015,553.5015,553.50
(-) Cash Required (M)-3,374.00-2,108.75-1,265.25
(=) Excess Retained (M)12,179.5013,444.7514,288.25
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)72.1072.1072.10
(=) Excess Retained per Share168.93186.48198.18
LTM Dividend per Share18.2618.2618.26
(+) Excess Retained per Share168.93186.48198.18
(=) Adjusted Dividend187.19204.74216.44
WACC / Discount Rate9.92%9.92%9.92%
Growth Rate3.42%4.42%5.42%
Fair Value$2,979.74$3,889.20$5,073.78
Upside / Downside-4.03%25.26%63.41%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)16,870.0017,616.3018,395.6219,209.4120,059.2020,946.5921,574.99
Payout Ratio7.80%24.24%40.68%57.12%73.56%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,316.504,270.737,483.7610,972.7114,755.7018,851.9319,956.87

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.92%9.92%9.92%
Growth Rate3.42%4.42%5.42%
Year 1 PV (M)3,848.063,885.273,922.47
Year 2 PV (M)6,075.756,193.816,313.01
Year 3 PV (M)8,026.658,261.738,501.37
Year 4 PV (M)9,725.6910,107.3310,500.09
Year 5 PV (M)11,195.8411,747.6612,321.04
PV of Terminal Value (M)171,246.19179,686.70188,456.79
Equity Value (M)210,118.17219,882.50230,014.76
Shares Outstanding (M)72.1072.1072.10
Fair Value$2,914.36$3,049.79$3,190.33
Upside / Downside-6.14%-1.78%2.75%

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