Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Prudential plc (2378.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Insurance - LifeSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$4.11 - $5.29$4.74
Multi-Stage$9.09 - $10.11$9.59
Blended Fair Value$7.16
Current Price$9.06
Upside-20.93%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-14.85%-8.84%0.200.200.180.160.300.460.480.580.580.53
YoY Growth--3.56%12.45%12.59%-48.28%-34.01%-5.39%-16.76%0.19%8.33%3.59%
Dividend Yield--3.20%2.24%1.51%1.23%2.28%3.19%3.59%3.06%3.60%3.49%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)4,126.99
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,050.89
(=) Cash Retained (M)3,076.10
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)825.40515.87309.52
Cash Retained (M)3,076.103,076.103,076.10
(-) Cash Required (M)-825.40-515.87-309.52
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,250.702,560.232,766.58
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,708.182,708.182,708.18
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.830.951.02
LTM Dividend per Share0.390.390.39
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.830.951.02
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.221.331.41
WACC / Discount Rate8.71%8.71%8.71%
Growth Rate-16.15%-15.15%-14.15%
Fair Value$4.11$4.74$5.29
Upside / Downside-54.63%-47.68%-41.59%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)4,126.993,501.602,970.982,520.772,138.791,814.681,869.12
Payout Ratio25.46%38.37%51.28%64.19%77.09%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,050.891,343.601,523.471,617.971,648.851,633.211,728.94

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.71%8.71%8.71%
Growth Rate-16.15%-15.15%-14.15%
Year 1 PV (M)1,221.341,235.901,250.47
Year 2 PV (M)1,258.821,289.031,319.59
Year 3 PV (M)1,215.261,259.261,304.31
Year 4 PV (M)1,125.751,180.431,237.07
Year 5 PV (M)1,013.611,075.521,140.41
PV of Terminal Value (M)18,778.9419,925.8121,128.05
Equity Value (M)24,613.7225,965.9527,379.90
Shares Outstanding (M)2,708.182,708.182,708.18
Fair Value$9.09$9.59$10.11
Upside / Downside0.32%5.83%11.59%

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