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Suxin Joyful Life Services Co., Ltd. (2152.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Real Estate - ServicesSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$12.84 - $19.86$16.09
Multi-Stage$28.64 - $31.56$30.07
Blended Fair Value$23.08
Current Price$5.01
Upside360.74%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS0.00%0.00%0.230.050.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--400.19%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--3.57%0.71%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)139.40
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)27.76
(=) Cash Retained (M)111.64
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)27.8817.4310.46
Cash Retained (M)111.64111.64111.64
(-) Cash Required (M)-27.88-17.43-10.46
(=) Excess Retained (M)83.7694.22101.19
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)101.05101.05101.05
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.830.931.00
LTM Dividend per Share0.270.270.27
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.830.931.00
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.101.211.28
WACC / Discount Rate6.43%6.43%6.43%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$12.84$16.09$19.86
Upside / Downside156.23%221.24%296.41%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)139.40138.01136.63135.26133.91132.57136.55
Payout Ratio19.91%33.93%47.95%61.97%75.98%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)27.7646.8365.5183.81101.75119.31126.31

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.43%6.43%6.43%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)43.5544.0044.44
Year 2 PV (M)56.6857.8459.01
Year 3 PV (M)67.4569.5371.66
Year 4 PV (M)76.1679.3182.57
Year 5 PV (M)83.0687.3991.89
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,566.992,700.662,839.84
Equity Value (M)2,893.893,038.733,189.42
Shares Outstanding (M)101.05101.05101.05
Fair Value$28.64$30.07$31.56
Upside / Downside471.64%500.25%530.01%

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