Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Hangzhou Steam Turbine Co., Ltd. (200771.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$36.62 - $89.69$84.05
Multi-Stage$13.26 - $14.50$13.87
Blended Fair Value$48.96
Current Price$10.20
Upside379.99%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS30.54%13.80%0.550.280.290.170.140.140.040.010.010.07
YoY Growth--94.72%-1.81%64.56%22.56%-1.70%224.11%471.32%-5.05%-87.87%-54.95%
Dividend Yield--5.56%4.35%3.50%2.26%2.22%3.30%1.00%0.20%0.18%1.35%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)501.51
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)296.81
(=) Cash Retained (M)204.71
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)100.3062.6937.61
Cash Retained (M)204.71204.71204.71
(-) Cash Required (M)-100.30-62.69-37.61
(=) Excess Retained (M)104.41142.02167.09
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,112.041,112.041,112.04
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.090.130.15
LTM Dividend per Share0.270.270.27
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.090.130.15
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.360.390.42
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$36.62$84.05$89.69
Upside / Downside259.03%724.04%779.31%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)501.51534.11568.83605.80645.18687.12707.73
Payout Ratio59.18%65.35%71.51%77.67%83.84%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)296.81349.02406.77470.54540.90618.41654.65

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)324.52327.60330.67
Year 2 PV (M)351.67358.36365.12
Year 3 PV (M)378.25389.11400.17
Year 4 PV (M)404.28419.83435.82
Year 5 PV (M)429.77450.53472.08
PV of Terminal Value (M)12,854.2213,475.0814,119.71
Equity Value (M)14,742.7115,420.5116,123.58
Shares Outstanding (M)1,112.041,112.041,112.04
Fair Value$13.26$13.87$14.50
Upside / Downside29.97%35.95%42.15%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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