Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Natural Food International Holding Limited (1837.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.35 - $2.09$1.69
Multi-Stage$3.08 - $3.40$3.24
Blended Fair Value$2.46
Current Price$0.72
Upside241.95%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-3.58%0.00%0.030.000.000.020.000.040.110.020.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%-100.00%0.00%-100.00%-65.43%363.95%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--6.78%0.00%0.00%4.00%0.00%3.00%9.63%2.06%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)310.45
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)70.52
(=) Cash Retained (M)239.93
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)62.0938.8123.28
Cash Retained (M)239.93239.93239.93
(-) Cash Required (M)-62.09-38.81-23.28
(=) Excess Retained (M)177.84201.12216.64
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,172.692,172.692,172.69
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.080.090.10
LTM Dividend per Share0.030.030.03
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.080.090.10
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.110.130.13
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$1.35$1.69$2.09
Upside / Downside87.07%134.97%190.67%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)310.45307.34304.27301.23298.21295.23304.09
Payout Ratio22.72%36.17%49.63%63.09%76.54%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)70.52111.17151.01190.03228.26265.71281.28

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)103.52104.58105.63
Year 2 PV (M)130.93133.61136.33
Year 3 PV (M)153.42158.16163.01
Year 4 PV (M)171.59178.71186.04
Year 5 PV (M)185.99195.68205.76
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,948.726,258.486,581.02
Equity Value (M)6,694.177,029.227,377.78
Shares Outstanding (M)2,172.692,172.692,172.69
Fair Value$3.08$3.24$3.40
Upside / Downside327.54%348.94%371.20%

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