Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Ausnutria Dairy Corporation Ltd (1717.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.51 - $2.28$1.87
Multi-Stage$2.76 - $3.04$2.90
Blended Fair Value$2.38
Current Price$1.87
Upside27.53%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-17.26%0.39%0.050.060.240.220.180.120.060.030.020.00
YoY Growth---18.10%-77.11%10.82%20.39%55.09%94.44%98.52%60.36%0.00%-100.00%
Dividend Yield--2.57%2.34%6.52%2.83%1.65%1.16%0.78%0.78%0.68%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)315.99
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)81.32
(=) Cash Retained (M)234.67
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)63.2039.5023.70
Cash Retained (M)234.67234.67234.67
(-) Cash Required (M)-63.20-39.50-23.70
(=) Excess Retained (M)171.47195.17210.97
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,783.271,783.271,783.27
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.100.110.12
LTM Dividend per Share0.050.050.05
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.100.110.12
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.140.160.16
WACC / Discount Rate7.61%7.61%7.61%
Growth Rate-1.61%-0.61%0.39%
Fair Value$1.51$1.87$2.28
Upside / Downside-19.16%0.17%21.76%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)315.99314.05312.12310.20308.30306.41315.60
Payout Ratio25.74%38.59%51.44%64.29%77.15%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)81.32121.19160.56199.44237.84275.77291.93

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.61%7.61%7.61%
Growth Rate-1.61%-0.61%0.39%
Year 1 PV (M)111.48112.61113.75
Year 2 PV (M)135.87138.65141.45
Year 3 PV (M)155.26160.04164.92
Year 4 PV (M)170.32177.36184.60
Year 5 PV (M)181.66191.09200.90
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,169.444,385.694,610.81
Equity Value (M)4,924.045,165.435,416.42
Shares Outstanding (M)1,783.271,783.271,783.27
Fair Value$2.76$2.90$3.04
Upside / Downside47.66%54.90%62.43%

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