Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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COFCO Joycome Foods Limited (1610.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.44 - $3.79$3.06
Multi-Stage$5.47 - $6.03$5.74
Blended Fair Value$4.40
Current Price$1.44
Upside205.78%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%0.020.000.130.150.130.000.000.000.860.00
YoY Growth--0.00%-100.00%-14.24%16.65%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.15%0.00%6.35%6.03%5.51%0.00%0.00%0.00%62.91%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,188.92
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)69.02
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,119.90
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)237.78148.6189.17
Cash Retained (M)1,119.901,119.901,119.90
(-) Cash Required (M)-237.78-148.61-89.17
(=) Excess Retained (M)882.12971.291,030.73
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)4,582.634,582.634,582.63
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.190.210.22
LTM Dividend per Share0.020.020.02
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.190.210.22
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.210.230.24
WACC / Discount Rate6.34%6.34%6.34%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$2.44$3.06$3.79
Upside / Downside69.38%112.65%162.90%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,188.921,177.031,165.261,153.611,142.071,130.651,164.57
Payout Ratio5.81%22.64%39.48%56.32%73.16%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)69.02266.53460.08649.73835.551,017.581,077.23

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.34%6.34%6.34%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)248.11250.64253.17
Year 2 PV (M)398.68406.86415.12
Year 3 PV (M)524.12540.33556.87
Year 4 PV (M)627.43653.43680.23
Year 5 PV (M)711.31748.35786.92
PV of Terminal Value (M)22,550.4523,724.7124,947.38
Equity Value (M)25,060.1026,324.3127,639.69
Shares Outstanding (M)4,582.634,582.634,582.63
Fair Value$5.47$5.74$6.03
Upside / Downside279.76%298.91%318.85%

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