Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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St. Galler Kantonalbank AG (0QQZ.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: BanksSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$610.60 - $920.96$757.09
Multi-Stage$1,194.87 - $1,316.42$1,254.45
Blended Fair Value$1,005.77
Current Price$482.00
Upside108.67%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-4.22%0.00%12.0117.0117.0116.0116.0214.9016.2913.9613.9613.96
YoY Growth---29.41%0.00%6.26%-0.08%7.52%-8.52%16.66%0.01%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.75%3.46%3.54%3.68%3.86%3.31%3.55%2.90%3.54%3.88%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)427.95
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)50.89
(=) Cash Retained (M)377.06
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)85.5953.4932.10
Cash Retained (M)377.06377.06377.06
(-) Cash Required (M)-85.59-53.49-32.10
(=) Excess Retained (M)291.47323.56344.96
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)5.985.985.98
(=) Excess Retained per Share48.7254.0857.66
LTM Dividend per Share8.518.518.51
(+) Excess Retained per Share48.7254.0857.66
(=) Adjusted Dividend57.2362.5966.17
WACC / Discount Rate7.18%7.18%7.18%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$610.60$757.09$920.96
Upside / Downside26.68%57.07%91.07%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)427.95423.67419.44415.24411.09406.98419.19
Payout Ratio11.89%27.51%43.14%58.76%74.38%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)50.89116.57180.93243.98305.76366.28387.75

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.18%7.18%7.18%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)107.66108.76109.85
Year 2 PV (M)154.32157.48160.68
Year 3 PV (M)192.19198.14204.20
Year 4 PV (M)222.44231.66241.16
Year 5 PV (M)246.10258.91272.26
PV of Terminal Value (M)6,225.846,550.036,887.59
Equity Value (M)7,148.557,504.987,875.75
Shares Outstanding (M)5.985.985.98
Fair Value$1,194.87$1,254.45$1,316.42
Upside / Downside147.90%160.26%173.12%

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