Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Kuehne + Nagel International AG (0QMW.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Integrated Freight & LogisticsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$264.88 - $854.41$428.47
Multi-Stage$278.67 - $304.83$291.51
Blended Fair Value$359.99
Current Price$256.63
Upside40.28%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS10.48%5.36%9.9513.999.994.534.026.055.795.545.044.04
YoY Growth---28.84%40.05%120.45%12.55%-33.43%4.36%4.56%9.85%24.94%-31.61%
Dividend Yield--3.88%5.45%3.67%1.71%1.49%4.55%4.19%3.68%3.62%2.95%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,199.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,182.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)17.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)239.80149.8889.93
Cash Retained (M)17.0017.0017.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-239.80-149.88-89.93
(=) Excess Retained (M)-222.80-132.88-72.93
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)118.77118.77118.77
(=) Excess Retained per Share-1.88-1.12-0.61
LTM Dividend per Share9.959.959.95
(+) Excess Retained per Share-1.88-1.12-0.61
(=) Adjusted Dividend8.088.839.34
WACC / Discount Rate6.51%6.51%6.51%
Growth Rate3.36%4.36%5.36%
Fair Value$264.88$428.47$854.41
Upside / Downside3.22%66.96%232.93%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,199.001,251.321,305.921,362.901,422.371,484.431,528.97
Payout Ratio98.58%96.87%95.15%93.43%91.72%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,182.001,212.101,242.571,273.401,304.551,335.991,414.30

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.51%6.51%6.51%
Growth Rate3.36%4.36%5.36%
Year 1 PV (M)1,127.061,137.961,148.86
Year 2 PV (M)1,074.331,095.221,116.31
Year 3 PV (M)1,023.731,053.741,084.32
Year 4 PV (M)975.191,013.481,052.89
Year 5 PV (M)928.63974.431,022.02
PV of Terminal Value (M)27,967.5229,346.8330,780.02
Equity Value (M)33,096.4734,621.6536,204.42
Shares Outstanding (M)118.77118.77118.77
Fair Value$278.67$291.51$304.83
Upside / Downside8.59%13.59%18.78%

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