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Definitive Analysis

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BVZ Holding AG (0QML.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: RailroadsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3,409.62 - $6,199.31$4,569.19
Multi-Stage$5,724.65 - $6,296.19$6,004.91
Blended Fair Value$5,287.05
Current Price$980.00
Upside439.49%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS2.71%4.81%16.0015.003.000.007.5014.0014.0012.0011.0010.91
YoY Growth--6.67%400.00%0.00%-100.00%-46.43%0.00%16.66%9.09%0.79%9.13%
Dividend Yield--1.79%1.63%0.41%0.00%0.95%1.17%1.74%1.78%2.10%1.91%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)47.52
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)6.71
(=) Cash Retained (M)40.81
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)9.505.943.56
Cash Retained (M)40.8140.8140.81
(-) Cash Required (M)-9.50-5.94-3.56
(=) Excess Retained (M)31.3134.8737.24
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)0.200.200.20
(=) Excess Retained per Share158.68176.74188.79
LTM Dividend per Share34.0034.0034.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share158.68176.74188.79
(=) Adjusted Dividend192.68210.74222.79
WACC / Discount Rate6.40%6.40%6.40%
Growth Rate0.71%1.71%2.71%
Fair Value$3,409.62$4,569.19$6,199.31
Upside / Downside247.92%366.24%532.58%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)47.5248.3349.1549.9950.8451.7153.26
Payout Ratio14.12%29.29%44.47%59.65%74.82%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)6.7114.1621.8629.8238.0446.5449.27

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.40%6.40%6.40%
Growth Rate0.71%1.71%2.71%
Year 1 PV (M)13.1713.3113.44
Year 2 PV (M)18.9319.3119.69
Year 3 PV (M)24.0324.7625.49
Year 4 PV (M)28.5429.6930.87
Year 5 PV (M)32.4934.1335.84
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,012.221,063.481,116.80
Equity Value (M)1,129.381,184.671,242.14
Shares Outstanding (M)0.200.200.20
Fair Value$5,724.65$6,004.91$6,296.19
Upside / Downside484.15%512.75%542.47%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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