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Definitive Analysis

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Lee's Pharmaceutical Holdings Limited (0950.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.06 - $3.51$2.69
Multi-Stage$3.71 - $4.08$3.89
Blended Fair Value$3.29
Current Price$1.44
Upside128.44%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-21.80%-8.50%0.030.020.040.060.060.100.100.110.110.10
YoY Growth--66.67%-56.10%-32.79%-6.04%-36.73%-1.87%-7.73%5.73%12.35%30.82%
Dividend Yield--2.07%1.46%2.99%2.52%1.09%2.87%1.44%1.14%1.43%1.75%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)97.81
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)26.50
(=) Cash Retained (M)71.31
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)19.5612.237.34
Cash Retained (M)71.3171.3171.31
(-) Cash Required (M)-19.56-12.23-7.34
(=) Excess Retained (M)51.7559.0863.97
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)588.84588.84588.84
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.090.100.11
LTM Dividend per Share0.050.050.05
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.090.100.11
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.130.150.15
WACC / Discount Rate6.53%6.53%6.53%
Growth Rate0.06%1.06%2.06%
Fair Value$2.06$2.69$3.51
Upside / Downside42.73%86.50%143.66%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)97.8198.8599.90100.96102.03103.12106.21
Payout Ratio27.09%39.67%52.26%64.84%77.42%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)26.5039.2252.2065.4678.9992.8198.25

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.53%6.53%6.53%
Growth Rate0.06%1.06%2.06%
Year 1 PV (M)36.4536.8137.18
Year 2 PV (M)45.0946.0046.91
Year 3 PV (M)52.5554.1455.76
Year 4 PV (M)58.9461.3363.79
Year 5 PV (M)64.3567.6371.05
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,928.352,026.652,128.92
Equity Value (M)2,185.722,292.562,403.61
Shares Outstanding (M)588.84588.84588.84
Fair Value$3.71$3.89$4.08
Upside / Downside157.77%170.37%183.47%

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