DDM Analysis: 0837.HK

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$39.57 - $137.30	$65.24
Multi-Stage	$38.88 - $42.65	$40.73
Blended Fair Value	$52.98
Current Price	$5.34
Upside	892.21%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-4.40%	3.64%	0.36	0.23	0.33	0.16	0.25	0.45	0.26	0.23	0.24	0.26
YoY Growth	-	-	58.23%	-31.24%	104.05%	-35.14%	-44.55%	76.48%	12.63%	-5.41%	-6.95%	2.38%
Dividend Yield	-	-	6.63%	5.09%	10.91%	5.70%	6.88%	8.82%	6.31%	5.57%	7.01%	7.10%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	360.27
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	90.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)	270.27

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	72.05	45.03	27.02
Cash Retained (M)	270.27	270.27	270.27
(-) Cash Required (M)	-72.05	-45.03	-27.02
(=) Excess Retained (M)	198.22	225.24	243.25
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	248.71	248.71	248.71
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.80	0.91	0.98
LTM Dividend per Share	0.36	0.36	0.36
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.80	0.91	0.98
(=) Adjusted Dividend	1.16	1.27	1.34
WACC / Discount Rate	6.44%	6.44%	6.44%
Growth Rate	3.42%	4.42%	5.42%
Fair Value	$39.57	$65.24	$137.30
Upside / Downside	640.97%	1,121.63%	2,471.24%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	360.27	376.17	392.79	410.13	428.24	447.15	460.57
Payout Ratio	24.98%	37.98%	50.99%	63.99%	77.00%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	90.00	142.89	200.27	262.45	329.73	402.44	426.02

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.44%	6.44%	6.44%
Growth Rate	3.42%	4.42%	5.42%
Year 1 PV (M)	132.95	134.24	135.52
Year 2 PV (M)	173.39	176.76	180.16
Year 3 PV (M)	211.42	217.61	223.92
Year 4 PV (M)	247.14	256.84	266.82
Year 5 PV (M)	280.66	294.50	308.87
PV of Terminal Value (M)	8,625.66	9,050.84	9,492.63
Equity Value (M)	9,671.22	10,130.78	10,607.93
Shares Outstanding (M)	248.71	248.71	248.71
Fair Value	$38.88	$40.73	$42.65
Upside / Downside	628.18%	662.78%	698.71%

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Carpenter Tan Holdings Limited (0837.HK)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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