Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Celltrion, Inc. (068270.KS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: BiotechnologySector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$76,943.49 - $190,037.05$115,034.78
Multi-Stage$53,580.26 - $58,541.55$56,015.91
Blended Fair Value$85,525.34
Current Price$173,400.00
Upside-50.68%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%314.98%489.55244.12484.100.020.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--100.54%-49.57%2,709,526.18%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%944.20%
Dividend Yield--0.30%0.14%0.35%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)737,835.37
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)153,763.51
(=) Cash Retained (M)584,071.86
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)147,567.0792,229.4255,337.65
Cash Retained (M)584,071.86584,071.86584,071.86
(-) Cash Required (M)-147,567.07-92,229.42-55,337.65
(=) Excess Retained (M)436,504.79491,842.44528,734.21
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)211.63211.63211.63
(=) Excess Retained per Share2,062.572,324.052,498.37
LTM Dividend per Share726.56726.56726.56
(+) Excess Retained per Share2,062.572,324.052,498.37
(=) Adjusted Dividend2,789.133,050.613,224.93
WACC / Discount Rate9.32%9.32%9.32%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$76,943.49$115,034.78$190,037.05
Upside / Downside-55.63%-33.66%9.59%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)737,835.37785,794.67836,871.33891,267.96949,200.381,010,898.401,041,225.36
Payout Ratio20.84%34.67%48.50%62.34%76.17%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)153,763.51272,449.55405,915.13555,580.13722,986.59909,808.56963,133.45

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.32%9.32%9.32%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)246,872.29249,212.31251,552.33
Year 2 PV (M)333,278.82339,626.85346,034.76
Year 3 PV (M)413,338.09425,203.54437,293.92
Year 4 PV (M)487,388.42506,132.00525,411.08
Year 5 PV (M)555,752.25582,595.29610,465.68
PV of Terminal Value (M)9,302,653.669,751,975.3110,218,493.56
Equity Value (M)11,339,283.5311,854,745.3012,389,251.33
Shares Outstanding (M)211.63211.63211.63
Fair Value$53,580.26$56,015.91$58,541.55
Upside / Downside-69.10%-67.70%-66.24%

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