Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Cosmax BTI, Inc. (044820.KS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Household & Personal ProductsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$30,575.92 - $86,400.56$47,655.76
Multi-Stage$33,942.61 - $37,228.88$35,554.84
Blended Fair Value$41,605.30
Current Price$17,990.00
Upside131.27%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS3.96%-2.80%349.920.00259.94233.62250.04288.16100.02200.03130.02239.87
YoY Growth--0.00%-100.00%11.27%-6.57%-13.23%188.12%-50.00%53.85%-45.80%-48.42%
Dividend Yield--3.39%0.00%2.97%1.73%1.52%2.68%0.41%0.59%0.41%0.47%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)12,168.77
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)4,299.68
(=) Cash Retained (M)7,869.10
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2,433.751,521.10912.66
Cash Retained (M)7,869.107,869.107,869.10
(-) Cash Required (M)-2,433.75-1,521.10-912.66
(=) Excess Retained (M)5,435.346,348.006,956.44
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)9.569.569.56
(=) Excess Retained per Share568.73664.23727.89
LTM Dividend per Share449.90449.90449.90
(+) Excess Retained per Share568.73664.23727.89
(=) Adjusted Dividend1,018.631,114.121,177.79
WACC / Discount Rate6.43%6.43%6.43%
Growth Rate3.00%4.00%5.00%
Fair Value$30,575.92$47,655.76$86,400.56
Upside / Downside69.96%164.90%380.27%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)12,168.7712,655.0113,160.6813,686.5514,233.4414,802.1815,246.24
Payout Ratio35.33%46.27%57.20%68.13%79.07%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)4,299.685,855.097,527.949,325.1211,253.9213,321.9614,102.77

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.43%6.43%6.43%
Growth Rate3.00%4.00%5.00%
Year 1 PV (M)5,448.605,501.505,554.41
Year 2 PV (M)6,518.976,646.186,774.61
Year 3 PV (M)7,514.667,735.687,960.98
Year 4 PV (M)8,439.378,771.939,114.23
Year 5 PV (M)9,296.659,756.8110,235.01
PV of Terminal Value (M)287,171.24301,385.51316,157.14
Equity Value (M)324,389.50339,797.61355,796.38
Shares Outstanding (M)9.569.569.56
Fair Value$33,942.61$35,554.84$37,228.88
Upside / Downside88.67%97.64%106.94%

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