Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Tomson Group Limited (0258.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Real Estate - DiversifiedSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.13 - $2.88$2.51
Multi-Stage$10.55 - $11.76$11.14
Blended Fair Value$6.83
Current Price$2.83
Upside141.21%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-38.54%-5.27%0.010.020.050.050.100.170.090.090.040.02
YoY Growth---17.58%-65.17%0.00%-50.00%-38.89%90.89%0.78%95.79%172.66%-35.40%
Dividend Yield--0.50%1.11%3.29%2.45%5.34%8.65%3.98%2.58%1.73%0.89%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)982.28
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)75.52
(=) Cash Retained (M)906.76
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)196.46122.7873.67
Cash Retained (M)906.76906.76906.76
(-) Cash Required (M)-196.46-122.78-73.67
(=) Excess Retained (M)710.30783.97833.09
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,114.272,114.272,114.27
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.340.370.39
LTM Dividend per Share0.040.040.04
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.340.370.39
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.370.410.43
WACC / Discount Rate5.02%5.02%5.02%
Growth Rate-10.61%-9.61%-8.61%
Fair Value$2.13$2.51$2.88
Upside / Downside-24.88%-11.24%1.83%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)982.28887.89802.58725.46655.76592.75610.53
Payout Ratio7.69%24.15%40.61%57.08%73.54%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)75.52214.43325.95414.06482.23533.47564.74

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.02%5.02%5.02%
Growth Rate-10.61%-9.61%-8.61%
Year 1 PV (M)201.92204.18206.44
Year 2 PV (M)289.03295.53302.11
Year 3 PV (M)345.74357.48369.47
Year 4 PV (M)379.17396.43414.26
Year 5 PV (M)395.00417.59441.21
PV of Terminal Value (M)20,699.2121,883.2023,120.75
Equity Value (M)22,310.0823,554.4024,854.23
Shares Outstanding (M)2,114.272,114.272,114.27
Fair Value$10.55$11.14$11.76
Upside / Downside272.87%293.66%315.39%

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