Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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First Pacific Company Limited (0142.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$20.18 - $52.84$49.51
Multi-Stage$13.55 - $14.88$14.20
Blended Fair Value$31.85
Current Price$0.71
Upside4,398.80%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS14.87%1.40%0.030.030.030.020.020.020.020.020.020.03
YoY Growth--11.93%7.01%21.26%16.96%17.72%-10.72%-0.27%0.81%-35.76%-0.35%
Dividend Yield--5.40%7.03%8.77%5.86%5.79%4.61%4.55%2.52%2.50%4.10%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,147.10
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)252.20
(=) Cash Retained (M)894.90
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)229.42143.3986.03
Cash Retained (M)894.90894.90894.90
(-) Cash Required (M)-229.42-143.39-86.03
(=) Excess Retained (M)665.48751.51808.87
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)4,249.374,249.374,249.37
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.160.180.19
LTM Dividend per Share0.060.060.06
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.160.180.19
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.220.240.25
WACC / Discount Rate4.92%4.92%4.92%
Growth Rate3.80%4.80%5.80%
Fair Value$20.18$49.51$52.84
Upside / Downside2,749.32%6,892.27%7,362.36%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,147.101,202.211,259.971,320.511,383.951,450.451,493.96
Payout Ratio21.99%35.59%49.19%62.79%76.40%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)252.20427.85619.80829.211,057.301,305.401,381.91

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate4.92%4.92%4.92%
Growth Rate3.80%4.80%5.80%
Year 1 PV (M)403.91407.81411.70
Year 2 PV (M)552.39563.08573.88
Year 3 PV (M)697.67718.03738.78
Year 4 PV (M)839.81872.64906.43
Year 5 PV (M)978.871,026.931,076.87
PV of Terminal Value (M)54,092.8156,749.0159,508.55
Equity Value (M)57,565.4660,337.5063,216.20
Shares Outstanding (M)4,249.374,249.374,249.37
Fair Value$13.55$14.20$14.88
Upside / Downside1,813.20%1,905.33%2,001.01%

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