Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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China Merchants China Direct Investments Limited (0133.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Asset ManagementSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$12.02 - $18.33$14.98
Multi-Stage$18.29 - $20.10$19.18
Blended Fair Value$17.08
Current Price$1.88
Upside808.41%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS11.38%7.18%0.120.070.140.080.070.070.110.060.060.06
YoY Growth--71.43%-50.00%75.00%14.29%0.00%-36.36%83.33%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--6.63%7.14%13.33%6.67%5.83%5.34%9.09%3.61%4.03%3.61%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)202.85
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)28.94
(=) Cash Retained (M)173.90
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)40.5725.3615.21
Cash Retained (M)173.90173.90173.90
(-) Cash Required (M)-40.57-25.36-15.21
(=) Excess Retained (M)133.33148.55158.69
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)152.33152.33152.33
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.880.981.04
LTM Dividend per Share0.190.190.19
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.880.981.04
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.071.171.23
WACC / Discount Rate8.41%8.41%8.41%
Growth Rate-0.41%0.59%1.59%
Fair Value$12.02$14.98$18.33
Upside / Downside539.36%696.57%875.04%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)202.85204.04205.24206.45207.67208.89215.15
Payout Ratio14.27%29.41%44.56%59.71%74.85%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)28.9460.0291.46123.27155.45188.00199.02

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.41%8.41%8.41%
Growth Rate-0.41%0.59%1.59%
Year 1 PV (M)54.8155.3655.91
Year 2 PV (M)76.2777.8179.37
Year 3 PV (M)93.8896.7399.65
Year 4 PV (M)108.11112.52117.06
Year 5 PV (M)119.40125.52131.88
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,334.342,453.922,578.35
Equity Value (M)2,786.822,921.863,062.22
Shares Outstanding (M)152.33152.33152.33
Fair Value$18.29$19.18$20.10
Upside / Downside873.10%920.25%969.26%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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