DDM Analysis: 003026.SZ

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$8.31 - $23.96	$13.03
Multi-Stage	$5.55 - $6.07	$5.80
Blended Fair Value	$9.42
Current Price	$37.76
Upside	-75.06%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	34.38%	25.31%	0.08	0.24	0.51	0.76	0.00	0.02	0.03	0.14	0.02	0.03
YoY Growth	-	-	-64.80%	-53.68%	-32.72%	0.00%	-100.00%	-43.96%	-76.04%	698.51%	-42.36%	252.57%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.29%	1.11%	1.37%	1.73%	0.00%	0.12%	0.00%	0.00%	0.11%	0.20%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	43.96
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	9.83
(=) Cash Retained (M)	34.13

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	8.79	5.50	3.30
Cash Retained (M)	34.13	34.13	34.13
(-) Cash Required (M)	-8.79	-5.50	-3.30
(=) Excess Retained (M)	25.34	28.64	30.83
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	131.96	131.96	131.96
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.19	0.22	0.23
LTM Dividend per Share	0.07	0.07	0.07
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.19	0.22	0.23
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.27	0.29	0.31
WACC / Discount Rate	8.88%	8.88%	8.88%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$8.31	$13.03	$23.96
Upside / Downside	-77.99%	-65.49%	-36.55%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	43.96	46.82	49.86	53.11	56.56	60.23	62.04
Payout Ratio	22.37%	35.89%	49.42%	62.95%	76.47%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	9.83	16.81	24.64	33.43	43.25	54.21	57.39

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	8.88%	8.88%	8.88%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	15.29	15.43	15.58
Year 2 PV (M)	20.40	20.79	21.18
Year 3 PV (M)	25.17	25.90	26.63
Year 4 PV (M)	29.63	30.77	31.94
Year 5 PV (M)	33.79	35.42	37.12
PV of Terminal Value (M)	608.09	637.46	667.95
Equity Value (M)	732.37	765.77	800.40
Shares Outstanding (M)	131.96	131.96	131.96
Fair Value	$5.55	$5.80	$6.07
Upside / Downside	-85.30%	-84.63%	-83.94%

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Zhejiang MTCN Technology Co.,Ltd. (003026.SZ)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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