Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Guangdong Haomei New Material Co., Ltd. (002988.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: AluminumSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$125.82 - $148.23$138.92
Multi-Stage$76.27 - $83.66$79.89
Blended Fair Value$109.41
Current Price$40.25
Upside171.81%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS22.38%0.00%0.520.300.210.410.210.190.240.240.200.00
YoY Growth--71.89%43.91%-49.02%101.10%8.25%-20.08%0.51%21.13%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.18%1.44%1.20%2.84%1.39%1.21%1.51%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)180.75
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)119.54
(=) Cash Retained (M)61.21
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)36.1522.5913.56
Cash Retained (M)61.2161.2161.21
(-) Cash Required (M)-36.15-22.59-13.56
(=) Excess Retained (M)25.0638.6247.66
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)242.50242.50242.50
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.100.160.20
LTM Dividend per Share0.490.490.49
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.100.160.20
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.600.650.69
WACC / Discount Rate4.04%4.04%4.04%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$125.82$138.92$148.23
Upside / Downside212.59%245.13%268.28%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)180.75192.50205.01218.34232.53247.65255.08
Payout Ratio66.13%70.91%75.68%80.45%85.23%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)119.54136.50155.15175.66198.18222.88235.94

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate4.04%4.04%4.04%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)129.96131.20132.43
Year 2 PV (M)140.66143.34146.04
Year 3 PV (M)151.63155.98160.41
Year 4 PV (M)162.87169.14175.58
Year 5 PV (M)174.41182.83191.58
PV of Terminal Value (M)17,735.4518,592.0819,481.49
Equity Value (M)18,494.9719,374.5520,287.53
Shares Outstanding (M)242.50242.50242.50
Fair Value$76.27$79.89$83.66
Upside / Downside89.48%98.49%107.85%

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