Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

GRG Metrology & Test Group Co. Ltd. Class A (002967.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Consulting ServicesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$49.83 - $143.44$134.42
Multi-Stage$20.18 - $22.07$21.11
Blended Fair Value$77.77
Current Price$18.73
Upside315.19%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS20.29%32.78%0.220.210.190.040.120.090.120.100.060.02
YoY Growth--4.08%13.41%356.70%-67.10%41.98%-26.52%14.61%61.87%241.84%45.18%
Dividend Yield--1.03%1.24%0.92%0.22%0.36%0.40%1.77%1.54%0.95%0.28%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)402.16
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)252.02
(=) Cash Retained (M)150.14
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)80.4350.2730.16
Cash Retained (M)150.14150.14150.14
(-) Cash Required (M)-80.43-50.27-30.16
(=) Excess Retained (M)69.7099.87119.97
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)557.58557.58557.58
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.130.180.22
LTM Dividend per Share0.450.450.45
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.130.180.22
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.580.630.67
WACC / Discount Rate6.72%6.72%6.72%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$49.83$134.42$143.44
Upside / Downside166.06%617.70%665.83%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)402.16428.30456.14485.79517.36550.99567.52
Payout Ratio62.67%68.13%73.60%79.07%84.53%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)252.02291.82335.72384.10437.35495.89524.96

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.72%6.72%6.72%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)270.87273.44276.01
Year 2 PV (M)289.25294.76300.33
Year 3 PV (M)307.18316.00324.98
Year 4 PV (M)324.66337.15349.99
Year 5 PV (M)341.70358.20375.34
PV of Terminal Value (M)9,719.6710,189.1310,676.56
Equity Value (M)11,253.3311,768.6812,303.20
Shares Outstanding (M)557.58557.58557.58
Fair Value$20.18$21.11$22.07
Upside / Downside7.75%12.69%17.81%

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