Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Suzhou Hengmingda Electronic Technology Co., Ltd. (002947.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Hardware, Equipment & PartsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$372.68 - $439.08$411.48
Multi-Stage$303.29 - $332.88$317.81
Blended Fair Value$364.65
Current Price$48.44
Upside652.78%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS36.43%0.00%0.460.280.140.150.290.100.000.180.220.22
YoY Growth--64.85%97.57%-3.72%-49.83%200.45%0.00%-100.00%-18.79%2.71%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.19%0.92%0.64%0.73%1.57%0.37%0.00%1.14%1.40%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)553.95
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)150.09
(=) Cash Retained (M)403.86
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)110.7969.2441.55
Cash Retained (M)403.86403.86403.86
(-) Cash Required (M)-110.79-69.24-41.55
(=) Excess Retained (M)293.07334.62362.31
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)250.90250.90250.90
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.171.331.44
LTM Dividend per Share0.600.600.60
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.171.331.44
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.771.932.04
WACC / Discount Rate-1.35%-1.35%-1.35%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$372.68$411.48$439.08
Upside / Downside669.37%749.47%806.44%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)553.95589.96628.30669.14712.64758.96781.73
Payout Ratio27.09%39.68%52.26%64.84%77.42%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)150.09234.07328.33433.86551.72683.06723.10

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate-1.35%-1.35%-1.35%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)235.05237.27239.50
Year 2 PV (M)331.08337.39343.75
Year 3 PV (M)439.32451.93464.78
Year 4 PV (M)560.99582.57604.76
Year 5 PV (M)697.45731.13766.11
PV of Terminal Value (M)73,832.4877,398.6281,101.24
Equity Value (M)76,096.3679,738.9083,520.13
Shares Outstanding (M)250.90250.90250.90
Fair Value$303.29$317.81$332.88
Upside / Downside526.11%556.09%587.20%

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